UK election 2019 - the likely result?
These are the latest predictions of voting intentions on the UK general election, which looks like it will come soon (Sept/Oct/Nov).
These are the latest predictions of voting intentions on the UK general election, which looks like it will come soon (Sept/Oct/Nov).
Because the UK parliament does not have proportional representation then the % figures in this chart from SURVATION dont reflect the actual seats the party’s get (‘seats’ meaning area, therefore it means the numbers of politicians elected).
So, on this basis if the Conservative Party got around 28% it would probably get them, say 270 seats (they got 317 seats on 40% of the vote in the last election). If if Labour Party got 24% it would get them maybe 240 seats (Labour's percentage of the vote may get them slightly less seats than the Conservatives percentage gets them, due to complicated aspects of how the constituency system works in the UK. Though in the past Labour have often benefited from that bad system).
Now, neither of them would be able to form a government with that. As the minimum seats needed is 326. So both would need to make an alliance with at least one other party, probably two.
You can see from these figures that the Scottish Nationalist Party only gets 4%. But that is of the TOTAL vote UK wide, which means little as they only 'stand' in Scotland. If we count their share just in Scotland its about 35% or 40% of the vote. So it means they will probably get about 40 seats in the London parliament. Oh, and despite having the word nationalist in their name the SNP are a center-left party, not right wing. Scotland has largely voted for left or center-left parties since the 1950s.
On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats have a tough situation because they get quite a good share of the vote, but the constituency system mentioned above means they always get LESS than their fair share. So they might get about 40 seats if lucky.
No one knows what the new Brexit party will get. Their % vote seems quite high, but it depends, again, on how that translates to actual seats. I doubt they would get more than 30 seats.
Then there is also the right leaning protestant party in Northern Ireland (DUP) that may get 10 seats.
So it would mean 2 likely alliances:
Conservatives + Brexit + DUP = 310-320 (still not enough!)
or
Labour + SNP + Liberals = 310-320 (still not enough!)
So, its a really confused situation, and i dont know how any group are going to be an effective government.
So, on this basis if the Conservative Party got around 28% it would probably get them, say 270 seats (they got 317 seats on 40% of the vote in the last election). If if Labour Party got 24% it would get them maybe 240 seats (Labour's percentage of the vote may get them slightly less seats than the Conservatives percentage gets them, due to complicated aspects of how the constituency system works in the UK. Though in the past Labour have often benefited from that bad system).
Now, neither of them would be able to form a government with that. As the minimum seats needed is 326. So both would need to make an alliance with at least one other party, probably two.
You can see from these figures that the Scottish Nationalist Party only gets 4%. But that is of the TOTAL vote UK wide, which means little as they only 'stand' in Scotland. If we count their share just in Scotland its about 35% or 40% of the vote. So it means they will probably get about 40 seats in the London parliament. Oh, and despite having the word nationalist in their name the SNP are a center-left party, not right wing. Scotland has largely voted for left or center-left parties since the 1950s.
On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats have a tough situation because they get quite a good share of the vote, but the constituency system mentioned above means they always get LESS than their fair share. So they might get about 40 seats if lucky.
No one knows what the new Brexit party will get. Their % vote seems quite high, but it depends, again, on how that translates to actual seats. I doubt they would get more than 30 seats.
Then there is also the right leaning protestant party in Northern Ireland (DUP) that may get 10 seats.
So it would mean 2 likely alliances:
Conservatives + Brexit + DUP = 310-320 (still not enough!)
or
Labour + SNP + Liberals = 310-320 (still not enough!)
So, its a really confused situation, and i dont know how any group are going to be an effective government.